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Retail market

Crisis winners: Construction/Garden/Leisure

200 €/qm NF

Spitzenmiete 2020 (Schätzung/höhere Mieten möglich*)

29.10 Mrd. Euro

Nachfragevolumen 2020

104,4

Zentralitätskennziffer

Source Bulwiengesa AG

Note: The calculation of the prime rent is based on the definition of the Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e.V. (Society for Real Estate Research). In the markets, deals are also concluded above the median prime rent.

Demand volume

The demand volume (all main product groups) in the stationary retail trade in the Metropole Ruhr totalled approx. 29.16 billion euros in 2020 and was thus 1.4 % or just under 410 million euros above the previous year's level. As a result of the Corona pandemic and the measures to contain it, there were major shifts in the distribution of the main product groups. The share of daily consumer goods increased to 57.4% or 16.7 billion euros (2019: 54.2% or 15.5 billion euros). This is due in particular to the expansion of home office arrangements and the associated provision of lunch at home, as well as the generally shorter opening hours or closure of catering establishments.

The building/garden/leisure product group also benefited from the Corona pandemic. Its share of demand volume rose to 12.3% or €3.57 billion (2019: 10.8% or €3.1 billion). One could almost speak of an anti-holiday effect here, as consumers invest the holiday money saved in their own four walls. In addition, a real boom could be observed in the trade with bicycles and e-bikes, which developed into the means of transport of the moment.

Significant losses were registered in stationary fashion retail, whose share of demand volume fell to 8.1% or €2.37 billion (2019: 11.6% or €3.35 billion). Even before the pandemic, brick-and-mortar fashion retail was under significant pressure from competition with online retail. Corona was another fire accelerant for this. In addition, lower demand for fashionable consumer goods was generally observed in the wake of the contact and exit restrictions.

Significant losses were registered in stationary fashion retail, whose share of demand volume fell to 8.1% or €2.37 billion (2019: 11.6% or €3.35 billion). Even before the pandemic, brick-and-mortar fashion retail was under significant pressure from competition with online retail. Corona was another fire accelerant for this. In addition, lower demand for fashionable consumer goods was generally observed in the wake of the contact and exit restrictions.

The Corona pandemic increases the pressure on rents in prime locations

bulwiengesa AG

Prime rent

Among the real estate asset classes, the retail sector, along with the hotel market, has been the hardest hit by the Covid 19 pandemic and the measures taken to contain it. The temporary complete shutdown of the retail sector is pushing many, especially smaller businesses and self-employed, to the limits of their existence. While in the past years the frequency in the prime locations in particular was the guarantee for success, closed shops, or the shop premises which can only be used to a limited extent in compliance with applicable hygiene regulations, lead to less frequented shopping streets in the Metropole Ruhr.

As a result, the top rent for prime locations, which is achieved in Dortmund's Westenhellweg, fell by 6 euros/m² to 200 euros/m². Falling rents for prime locations were also observed in other submarkets of the Metropole Ruhr.

This means that the Metropole Ruhr is still below the average for A-cities, which fell by around 6.80 euros/m² to 275 euros last year.

The average rent for prime locations in all submarkets of the Metropole Ruhr was 33.75 euros/m² in 2020, 3.1% or around 1 euro/m² below the previous year's level. The average rent for city district locations showed a stable trend and stood at 8.61 euros/m² at the end of 2020.

With a normalisation of the retail framework conditions, which are currently still very difficult to assess with the expected extension of the lockdown beyond 31 January, the pressure on retail rents will ease again.

(*Note: In the markets, deals are also being concluded above the prime rent median. Source: bulwiengesa AG)

Sales area by type of business

When looking at sales floorspace by type of business, there are only minor changes compared to 2019, which are limited to the types of business retail parks (> 8,000 m² VKF) and grocery stores (> 400 m² VKF).

The sales area in retail parks in the Metropole Ruhr fell slightly by 3.7% or 13,750 m² to around 359,000 m², while the sales area in grocery stores rose by 0.6% or 11,450 m² to around 1.875 million m².

The sales area in shopping centres (> 10,000 m² VKF) was unchanged at 764,800 m² at the end of 2020.