Volume of new construction clearly above 5-year average
Floor space 2018
533,164 m² FS
5.10 euros per m²
Flächenbestand & Fertigstellungen
The floor space of modern logistics real estate (construction year ≥ 2009) in the Ruhr Metropolis amounted to some 3.3 m m² at the end of 2018. The largest offer was found in Dortmund, with approximately 760,000 m², followed by Duisburg with around 540,000 m² and the district of Recklinghausen with around 450,000 m². The well-filled project pipeline indicates that the surface area for modern logistics real estate should rise further slightly until the end of 2019. In 2019 the district of Unna will see a marked increase in modern stock due to its large volume of new construction.
In 2018 a total of around 530,000 m² FS of modern logistics real estate was completed in the Ruhr Metropolis, representing the second highest figure in the reporting period. Amongst the finalised projects, the Handelslogistik-Park of Metro Group in Marl has the highest volume, with 236,000 m² FS of logistics space. Further large-volume completions were the ProLogis Park Hünxe with 136,000 m² FS and the Prologis Park Unna DC2 with approx. 41,000 m² FS in Industriegebiet Nord. According to the well-filled project pipeline, 2019 will clearly exceed the result of 2018, with around 640,000 m² FS.
Floor space turnover
The turnover of logistics real estate floor space in the Ruhr Metropolis in 2018 totalled approximately 236,000 m² FS. This meant that the outstanding result of 1 m m² in 2016 once again failed to be achieved.
This decline is due to numerous factors. For example, in 2017 and 2018 there was a marked fall in the conclusion of major completions, for which trading companies in particular were responsible in 2016. In addition, the decline in the start of larger owner-occupier construction projects could also be noted in the statistics. A further aspect is that the Ruhr Metropolis is also characterised by an increasing shortage of supply for marketable logistics space.
An increase in turnover to over 300,000 m² FS is expected for 2019.
The peak rent for logistics real estate in the Ruhr Metropolis displayed stable development in 2018, standing at 5.10 euro/m² at the end of the reporting period. This level was achieved by modern properties in Dortmund and, slightly lower, the Port of Duisburg.
Moreover, logistics real estate with excellent locations and significantly above-average equipment levels achieve rents above the current peak rent level. In 2019 a slight rise is anticipated with regard to peak rent.
At the end of 2018 the mean average for all sub-markets of the Ruhr Metropolis was marginally above the level of the previous year, at 3.35 euro/m².
In 2018 a total of around 706 m euros was invested in the logistics real estate in the investment market of the Ruhr Metropolis, corresponding to a turnover share of around 27 %. As a consequence, after office real estate, logistics real estate was the most sought-after asset class in the commercial investment market of the Ruhr Metropolis. As a consequence, the net initial return for properties in central locations fell 30 basis points by the end of 2018, to 5.0 %. As in the previous year, the highest prices were achieved in Dortmund and Duisburg, followed by Essen and Bochum, where the net initial return reached new lows of 5.4 % and 6.2 % respectively.
In 2019 we estimate that prime yields in the Ruhr Metropolis are set to fall again by around 20 basis points, to 4.8 %.
The mean net initial return for logistics real estate in decentral locations in the Ruhr Metropolis saw a yield compression of 50 basis points in 2018, to 8.2 %.