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Logistics market

New construction volume expected to be well above 5-year average

3.95 Mio. qm NF

Space inventory 2021 (modern logistics properties year of construction < 10 years)

359.000 qm NF

New construction volume 2021

5,30 €/qm NF

Peak rent 2021

New construction volume

In the first half of 2021, a total of approx. 359,000 m² of new build space was added to the logistics property market in the Metropole Ruhr, which is approx. 9 % or 30,000 m² NF above the total volume for 2020.

The highest volume of new construction in the first six months was registered in Oberhausen with 111,000 m², followed by the district of Recklinghausen with approx. 70,000 m² and Gelsenkirchen with approx. 52,000 m².

Large-volume finalised projects in H1 2021 include the Edeka delivery warehouse with 96,700 m² in Oberhausen, the 1st BA of the Bilstein - Logistics Centre with around 45,000 m² of logistics space in Gelsenkirchen, the new construction of the Amazon Fullfillment Centre with around 35,000 m² in Witten and the new construction of Panattoni Park Essen with around 25,000 m².

According to the pipeline, around 632,000 m² of logistics space is currently under construction with a planned completion date in 2021. In addition, there are around 22,000 m² in the planning phase with potential completion this year. The completion volume could thus rise to 654,000 m² by the end of the year. In any case, a level well above the 5-year average of 450,000 m² will be reached.

"The amount of space in modern logistics properties that are no more than 10 years old increased by 7.9% in 2020 to around 3.95 million sqm"

 

bulwiengesa AG

 

Take-up in modern logistics properties

The past year has shown that among the commercial property types in the Metropole Ruhr, it is primarily logistics properties that are meeting with high demand. The segment has demonstrated its systemic relevance in the pandemic and stabilised demand for logistics and warehouse space at a high level.

In 2020, take-up in modern logistics properties was around 480,000 sq m, marking the third-highest figure in the period under review. Regional focal points were found in the district of Unna with around 136,000 m², followed by Duisburg with 110,000 m² and the district of Recklinghausen with approx. 53,000 m².

The share of owner-occupiers amounted to approx. 26.1 % or approx. 126,000 m². Rentals under construction contributed 26.3 % or approx. 128,000 m² to the turnover result, which is due to the increase in (partly) speculative construction activity. This is evidence of the confidence of project developers and investors, who view the segment positively and assume that demand for logistics space will continue to rise. They are meeting this demand with speculative construction activity, as they expect a relatively short marketing period for space in attractive locations.

The pre-letting volume totalled around 52,000 m², which corresponds to a turnover share of approx. 10.9 %. The highest share of 36.6 % or approx. 177,000 m² is accounted for by lettings in existing buildings.

The sector-specific demand was dominated by retail companies with approx. 35.8 % or approx. 173,000 m², followed by the logistics and transport sector with approx. 26.6 % or 128,000 m². The user sector eCommerce accounted for approx. 17.3 % or approx. 84,000 m². The manufacturing sector contributed 11.2 % or 54,000 m² to the turnover, scientific and technical service providers came to 6.8 % or approx. 33,000 m² and the turnover share of other users (e.g. public sector) was 2.2 % or 11,000 m².

In the first half of 2021, logistics take-up in the Metropole Ruhr totalled around 155,000 sq m, which can be regarded as a moderate result compared with the two previous years. This reflects the very limited supply of modern space available for occupation at short notice, which, in conjunction with the lack of large-volume owner-occupiers, weighed on the result.

The largest deal in the first half of the year was concluded in Dorsten in the district of Recklinghausen. Here, Delta Projektentwicklung & Management GmbH is realising approx. 70,000 sqm for Levi's. In addition, logistics service providers Hellmann and Euziel each leased around 20,000 sqm on the former Ikea site in Werne.

Prime and average rents for warehouse and logistics space

The top rent for logistics properties in the Metropole Ruhr has risen by 0.10 euros/m² to 5.30 euros/m² compared with the end of 2020 and continues to be achieved in Duisburg and, with slight reductions, also in Dortmund and Essen. In individual cases, rents above the current prime rent level were also achieved with significantly above-average property and location qualities.

The average median rent for the submarkets of the Metropole Ruhr has shown a consistently positive trend since 2013 and stood at 3.60 euros/m² in the first half of 2021, which represents a slight increase of 1 % compared with the previous year.

In the short to medium term, demand for logistics space in the Metropole Ruhr is expected to remain high, resulting in a continuation of the trend towards slightly rising rents.